Thailand's Tourism Authority says the country needs to re-open its borders by the last quarter of the year and prepare for the resulting management of new Covid-19 cases. TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn says with careful risk management, the impact of new cases can be contained.
The reality of the situation is now sinking in, as Thai officials now openly admit that they are unable to keep Thailand completely COVID-free forever.
"New cases can not be avoided but the most important thing is to have risk management in place. It would be a good balance between public health and business survival if there are 5 cases among 5 million tourists, and we can contain those infections with stringent measures.
Thailand's borders have been closed since March, with devastating consequences for the country's tourism sector. Businesses are shuttered in normally thriving hot spots such as Pattaya, Koh Samui, and Phuket, many for good, and thousands of workers are unemployed. The fallout was significant and Yuthasak says it's set to get worse the longer the boundaries remain closed.
"By the last quarter, we have to bring in tourists as the domestic market alone can not keep the tourism workers employed. If we keep delaying their entry, there will be a risk of around 2,5 million jobs out of 4 million.'
Following the discovery in more than 3 months of Thailand's first locally transmitted case Covid-19, the TAT was forced to downgrade its estimate of 80 million domestic trips to 70 million in 2020. It is expected that domestic tourists will bring revenue of 418 billion baht, down more than 60 per cent on figures for 2019. International visitor revenue is expected to fall by 65 per cent compared to 2019.
Yuthasak estimates that to keep going, hotels need a 30 per cent occupancy rate. The rate is currently 28 per cent nationally. He says an increase in domestic travel to 100 million in 2021, coupled with a tentative plan to open up to foreign tourists, could increase the average occupancy of hotels to 50%.
A lot of plans and ideas have been put forward for a careful reopening for international tourists, with one example being the "Phuket Model" (that name may change). No confirmation of any being given the green light and definitive start date is yet available. What's certain is that any reopening will involve a lot of paperwork, several Covid-19 tests, and quarantine for at least 14 days – longer if tourists want to travel beyond Phuket.
The recent local case in Bangkok, coupled with the COVID-positive Egyptian soldier's saga at Rayong, has delayed any potential reopening. Concerns expressed by some locals in Phuket have also provided pause for thought for officials. Yuthasak says any reopening must involve careful planning and proper communication with the locals in order to ensure that they are on board.
The Bangkok Post reports that the TAT plans to offer a special long-stay visa, costing approximately 2,000 baht, which can be extended for up to 270 days. In terms of short-term arrivals that are unable to meet the 14-day quarantine, Yuthasak says the TAT is coordinating appropriate security protocols with the private sector. These would form part of a reciprocal pact with the countries selected.
Meanwhile, Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, president of the Thai Hotels Association, says Thailand can not expect to have zero Covid-19 infections, and must learn to balance virus suppression with restarting the tourism sector. She says government officials in charge of health must reassure the public that quarantine facilities beyond Bangkok will have the same strict standards as those in the capital.
Source Thaiger
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